Kalshi, Polymarket become official prediction market partners of the NHL
On Wednesday the NHL designated Kalshi and Polymarket as official prediction market partners of the league, becoming the first major North American sport to strike a commercial partnership with the upstart sites. Under the deal, the league will provide the two companies with access to official NHL proprietary data and rights to use NHL marks, logos and official designations on their platforms and products, according to a press release issued Wednesday. According to the NHL, Kalshi’s and Polymarket’s brokers and merchants will also be able to use the league’s marks and logos to identify the products they make available. “As prediction markets continue to evolve at a rapid pace, partnering with the two market leaders, Kalshi and Polymarket, provides a tremendous opportunity for the broadest fan engagement during the NHL season,” said Keith Wachtel, who serves as president of NHL Business. “Polymarket and Kalshi are ideal partners as this category continues to grow and expand.” Speaking to CNBC on Wednesday, Wachtel said he is intrigued by the potential for increased cross-selling through the partnership. For instance, a customer can trade a contract concerning the week’s most popular show on Netflix, while also making their pick for winner of the NHL’s Vezina Trophy given annually to the league’s top goaltender. The entertainment contracts typically are not offered on a traditional sportsbook. Kalshi brand exposure for NHL Winter Classic It may not be a coincidence that Kalshi marked the announcement by placing an NHL event contract on the most prominent area of its website on Wednesday, occupying the majority of the screen for customers trading on their laptops. A market for the 2026 Stanley Cup champions received approximately nearly $980,000 in trading volume as of 12:20pm ET. Two teams, the Carolina Hurricanes and the Edmonton Oilers, were co-favourites on the market with a 12% chance to hoist the Stanley Cup. The Florida Panthers, the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion, were the third choice at 11%. Kalshi, along with Polymarket, will receive brand exposure via Digitally Enhanced Dasherboards and blue line slot virtual signage on various NHL game broadcasts. The broadcasts will include the NHL Winter Classic, the NHL Stadium Series and postseason games during the Stanley Cup playoffs. Polymarket offered three event contracts on Wednesday’s nightly slate. An all-Canadian matchup between Montreal and Calgary received more than $683,000 in trading volume as of early Wednesday afternoon. “The NHL has always been about giving fans an incredible experience. We’re excited to bring that energy to Polymarket, where fans can engage with the NHL and its teams in a new way,” said Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan. Attempts to ameliorate integrity concerns Coplan appeared as part of a roundtable with Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour last month in Washington DC. The event, which also featured several executives from the nation’s largest derivative markets, delved into harmonisation efforts between the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the US Securities and Exchange Commission. The two prediction markets, as well as Robinhood and Crypto.com, are in the spotlight for their foray into sports event contracts. The derivative products have been criticised by those contending the contracts are essentially sports wagers that should be regulated on the state level. Kalshi is embroiled in litigation in numerous states on the legality of the contracts. Mansour, however, noted that the partnership with the NHL is a testament to the “integrity, safety, and trust” that Kalshi has spent years building with customers. While Kalshi previously signed a partnership with integrity monitor IC360, critics of prediction markets have argued that the sites lack Know Your Customer and anti-money laundering scrutiny that legal sportsbooks face from state regulators. “Teaming up with the NHL is an important milestone for Kalshi and the industry at large,” Mansour wrote in a statement. “It should be clear now – prediction markets are here to stay.” Position of other leagues Over the summer, the NFL expressed a number of concerns associated with prediction markets. David Highhill, NFL vice president of sports betting, stressed that the contracts are susceptible to “price distortions” without the proper regulations. While MLB is not expressly opposed to the rise of prediction markets, the league called on the CFTC to establish a robust integrity framework for sports event contracts. Nevertheless, the prediction markets’ commercial partnership with the NHL could exert pressure on regulated sportsbooks to accelerate a possible move into the new space. The designation comes one day after DraftKings announced its acquisition of Railbird Technologies. The company owns Railbird Exchange, a federally licensed exchange designated by the CFTC. DraftKings has not indicated if it plans to offer sports event contracts.
Weekend Report: Betfred warns of shop closures, Dutch Lottery risk officer exits
Welcome to the Weekend Report, where iGB looks at the news that you may have missed across the last few days. This week: Betfred warns of UK shop closures, Dutch Lottery financial officer exits and Kambi pens Betnation deal in the Netherlands. Betfred could close all UK shops Bookmaker Betfred has warned it could close all its UK high street betting ships if gambling taxes rise as feared. According to The Guardian, Betfred is considering shutting all 1,287 of its shops. This would put 7,500 jobs at risk across the UK. The government is considering introducing higher tax rates for gambling companies active in the UK. Chancellor Rachel Reeves will set out the plans during November’s budget. Flutter Entertainment also recently said it plans to close shops in the UK and Ireland. Entain and Evoke also said they could shut branches in response to higher tax. Aerssen departs Dutch Lottery The Dutch Lottery has announced that Jet Roos-van Aerssen is stepping down as chief financial and risk officer (CFRO). Aerssen had worked for the operator since May last year, having succeeded Arjan Blok as CFRO. Blok went on to become CEO of the Dutch Lottery. Prior to joining the organisation, Roos-van Aerssen worked in various international and national financial roles. This included stints with Talpa Network, Aegon and General Electric. “Jet has made a significant impact on our organisation and our contribution to sports and exercise in the past year and a half,” Blok said. “We have come to know her as a professional and appreciate her commitment to the Dutch Lottery. We wish Jet every success in the future.” Kambi scores betting partnership with Betnation Also in the Netherlands, Kambi Group has agreed to a multi-year partnership with online operator Betnation. Kambi will deliver its turnkey sportsbook solution to Betnation in the country. This includes a range of sports betting technology and services, such as a betting engine and trading and risk management capabilities. Betnation has operated an online casino in the Netherlands since October 2022. “Kambi’s reputation for excellence, cutting-edge technology and a commitment to regulated markets made them the natural choice as our new sportsbook provider,” Betnation CEO Robert Schouten said. BetMGM extends with NFL’s Steelers BetMGM has extended its partnership with the Pittsburgh Steelers of the NFL. The deal will run to 2029, with BetMGM serving as an official sports betting, online casino and gaming partner. BetMGM and the Steelers will introduce new fan-focused experiences, as well as continue the “Decade of Black & Gold Sweepstakes”. The latter awards one fan in Pennsylvania or West Virginia with 10 years of season tickets and hospitality tent passes for Steelers home games. “This partnership extension allows BetMGM to continue delivering experiences that reflect the energy and passion of Steelers Nation,” said Casey Hurbis, BetMGM chief marketing officer. Svenska Spel details community funding programme Svenska Spel has launched a new initiative to fund local sports clubs in the Gotland region of Sweden. Föreningsdrömmen Gotland will distribute SEK1 million ($106,124) each year. This will see 10 clubs in the region receive SEK100,000 each. Clubs interested in the funding can begin to apply from 12 November. Funds can be used to fund equipment, travel, camps or support their own initiatives. “Sports are an important meeting place for children and young people. It is where joy is born, where dreams grow and where community takes shape,” Svenska Spel CEO and President Anna Johnson said. “With Föreningsdrömmen, we want to give more people the chance to be involved and feel the joy and belonging that sports create.”
Gambling Commission GSGB: A statistical shock and its political fallout
While the raw numbers from the 2024 UK Gambling Commission’s GSGB (Gambling Survey for Great Britain) suggest relatively modest year-on-year changes, the way they are being presented, and the uses to which they are being put by the anti-gambling lobby, could have far-reaching consequences for operators, campaigners and policymakers alike. What Gambling Commission GSGB numbers say The 2024 GSGB shows a decline in past-year participation, from 61.5% in 2023 to 59.6%. “Problem gambling” prevalence, defined as PGSI scores of 8+, rose slightly from 2.5% to 2.7%, while moderate-risk gambling fell from 3.7% to 3.1%. For certain groups, harms appear to be easing: the proportion of gamblers reporting severe adverse consequences declined, particularly among women, where it fell 18%. Serious financial harm indicators dropped by nearly a quarter, and more than halved among 18–24-year-olds. However, other harms moved in the opposite direction. Reported rates of harm to “affected others” (such as partners, families and friends), including violence and abuse, increased. These complexities are often lost in the headline framing: the figure that has dominated media coverage is the 2.7% PGSI rate, extrapolated to imply 1.4 million “problem gamblers” in Britain. From caution to ‘official statistics‘ Until this year, the Gambling Commission had insisted on a health warning: GSGB survey data could not be scaled up to national totals due to methodological uncertainty. That caveat has now been removed, with the regulator describing the survey as “official statistics” and encouraging licensees to use the figures in risk assessments. Melanie Ellis, partner at Northridge Law, believes this shift was a mistake: “It was premature of the UKGC to call these ‘official statistics’ and to take away the health warning, without sufficient scientifically rigorous testing to give confidence that the data is accurate,” she says. Ellis stresses that while the commission was right to modernise its GSGB survey methodology, it failed to pause when early results diverged drastically from NHS health survey benchmarks. “The regulator blinkered itself to the impact these figures would have on the industry,” she adds. Gambling Commission’s GSGC ‘an almighty headache‘ Dan Waugh, partner at Regulus Partners, is even more blunt. He describes the GSGB as the regulator’s HS2, an over-budget, politically committed project that cannot be reversed even if flawed. “The survey has uncovered a previously unheralded huge degree of gambling participation overall. … It suggests a massive unlicensed market which was not picked up in the health survey. So, either the commission has not understood the market it is regulating, or it has let rampant gambling disorder flourish,” Waugh warns. The removal of caveats, he argues, creates “an almighty headache for DCMS” as campaigners will now lobby ministers armed with the regulator’s own statistics. “This will absolutely feed into the discussion on tax,” he adds. “You will see intense lobbying over further ad bans. And it will effectively have the GC’s badge on it.” Bias, capture and sunk costs Regulus’ own analysis frames the GSGB controversy as a case study in regulatory bias and institutional inertia. The Gambling Commission, it argues, has shown a willingness to find vindication where none exists. Researchers at the London School of Economics conducted inconclusive experiments comparing survey modes, yet these have been cited as justification for lifting safeguards. “The willingness of the commission to find vindication where none exists smacks of a prior bias,” Waugh wrote in an analysis sent to Regulus clients. “The alacrity with which some academic researchers have abandoned previously held views may indicate the presence of ‘in-group bias’ or worse.” The problem is compounded by selection bias and self-reporting inconsistencies. Hard industry data on actual participation often fails to align with Gambling Commission GSGB responses. Waugh suggests in his written analysis that there are three possible explanations: The survey overstates gambling prevalence due to selection bias. There exists a vast unlicensed market previously undetected. Respondents misunderstand questions or answer inattentively. None of these explanations, the consultant argues, inspire confidence that the GSGB can yet serve as a sound basis for policy. Industry in denial? Another theme emerging from Waugh’s critique is industry complacency. For years, operators have dismissed or downplayed research framing gambling as an “unhealthy commodity” akin to tobacco. By failing to engage seriously, they now face the risk of punitive tax rises and stricter controls. “Within the next 12 months, UK Research & Innovation will start to distribute £20 million a year in levy funding, with gambling described as a ‘health-harming industry’,” Waugh notes. Without a coordinated response, the industry faces “over-taxation and over-regulation”. Waugh suggests that operators have failed to mount a serious challenge. “The industry has just sat there and done nothing,” he says. “I can’t see that this will not negatively affect the industry.” Black market blind spots For Ellis, the critical missing piece is the role of unlicensed operators. “If [the Gambling Commission] wants to assess whether player protection measures imposed on the licensed industry are effective, it urgently needs to be able to segment its GSGB data into customers using licensed and unlicensed operators,” she notes. The commission has acknowledged this challenge but progress is slow. Without it, assessing whether regulatory interventions reduce harm risks becomes meaningless. Worse, restrictions on licensed operators may push consumers into the unregulated sphere, undermining protections altogether. From survey to supervision For licensees, the key issue is how the Gambling Commission GSGB will be operationalised. Commission CEO Andrew Rhodes has “strongly encouraged” firms to use GSGB data to assess risk within their customer bases. Does this mean operators must assume that one in 10 online sports bettors are “problem gamblers,” as the GSGB suggests? If so, this would transform the expectations around customer monitoring and affordability. Yet ambiguity persists. Ellis cautions that if the commission bases enforcement on GSGB-derived thresholds, “it must ensure that decisions are defensible and acknowledge methodological caveats”. The politics of harm The political consequences are already visible. The Guardian and other outlets have amplified the “1.4 million problem gamblers” figure, fuelling calls from campaigners for advertising curbs and affordability checks. Ministers
GamCare rolls out new gambling harms campaign
UK-facing charity GamCare has announced the launch of a new digital campaign aimed at helping consumers recognise indicators of gambling harms and encouraging players to seek support. Designed in partnership with creative agency 23red, part of CapGemini, the campaign will run year-round. It will feature across multiple digital platforms, targeting men aged 18-44 and individuals affected by their loved ones’ gambling. Featured in the campaign will be several short creatives, with the primary piece of content being a 30-second film using metaphorical visual storytelling to demonstrate the emotions people can experience while gambling. GamCare encourages people to seek support The campaign forms part of a wider, ongoing effort by GamCare to promote support for those impacted by gambling harms. Established in 1997, GamCare provides information, advice and support for people dealing with problem gambling. “Our new creative visualises the inner turmoil that people experiencing gambling harms can feel,” GamCare CEO Victoria Corbishley said. “It’s a fresh approach that we hope helps people in need, whether they gamble themselves or care about someone who does. We hope they will see those signs and reach out sooner for support.” 23red Creative Director Tristan Cavanagh added: “Unhealthy gambling habits are often hidden in plain sight. We set out to create something people who are experiencing gambling harms instantly recognise and feel rather than just watch, with visuals that mirror the quiet chaos inside someone’s head. “Our aim was to cut through the usual tropes and deliver a piece that resonates emotionally, prompting conversations before harm escalates.” The campaign launches as another industry charity, GambleAware, prepares to close. In July, GambleAware said it will halt all activities and transition its work to the British government by the end of March 2026. This followed the introduction of a new statutory levy earlier this year. In August, GambleAware named Anna Hargrave as its transition CEO to oversee its managed closure. Hargrave took on the position after Zoë Osmond stepped down as CEO on 30 September.